Israel is Trying to Drag America into Their War: This Should be Avoided at all Costs
As the constant tit-for-tat missile strikes between Israel and Iran continue into its seventh day, Israel is asking for direct American involvement in the conflict. Specifically, Israel wants the United States to drop a bunker-busting bomb onto Iranian nuclear sites, a bomb that Israel does not possess nor have a delivery system capable of dropping it themselves. This bomb can penetrate deep into the ground and inflict damage well beyond the surface level. Israel believes these bombs can set the Iranian nuclear program back, and perhaps destroy it. Assuming this belief is accurate, it would mean the United States will enter the fray, and Iran would certainly retaliate with strikes on American military bases and interests in the region. The United States becoming entangled in yet another conflict in the Middle East is not only a bad idea, it would simply continue the stupidity of interventionist foreign policy that has not benefitted the United States over the past 25 years. President Donald Trump is risking a stark division in his base, considering the fact he campaigned on a "no new wars" slogan. What could the outcomes of becoming involved in yet another foreign war be for the U.S.?
As has been demonstrated ad nauseam, American intervention in the Middle East has done nothing but create additional problems for the United States and for the Middle East. The invasion of Iraq, as a glaring example, was not only based upon the false pretenses that Iraq was developing weapons of mass destruction, (quite coincidental that same talking point is used by Israel in Iran's case) but the outcome of the invasion was ultimately worse for the region, and for American interests. The power vacuum that was created not only aided in the rise of extremist groups such as ISIS, it also gave way to more power for Iran. Saddam Hussein was a stark opponent of Iran, and his regime's collapse removed a significant barrier for Iran to position itself as a great power in the Middle East. And, more simply, respect for the United States internationally was highly damaged, and it has not fully recovered.
Israel has two clear goals from the conflict it initiated with Iran-to destroy its nuclear program, and to force regime change. Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, has not ruled out the possibility that Israel could assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The business of regime change, as the Iraq example has shown, comes with various risks that destabilize relations within the region, and fundamentally change the dynamics of foreign policy. Further, other bad actors, such as extremist militia groups, may jump on the opportunity to control Iran if regime change was indeed successful. This would undoubtedly cause more problems for the United States in the long run, and would make the Middle East a more dangerous place.
Regime change in Iran will not be anywhere near as simple as it was in Iraq. Iran is a far larger country than Iraq, both population wise and geographically. Iran has a population of roughly 90 million people. Iraq's population at the time of invasion in 2003 was around 27 million. Iran's military capabilities are also significantly more sophisticated and powerful than Iraq's were in 2003. Multiple proxy militia groups in the region are allied with Iran, the most significant of which are Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. All three of these groups have missiles and other weaponry. Although Hamas and Hezbollah have been degraded over the course of Israel's war in Gaza and in Lebanon, each of them still have fairly significant capabilities. The Houthis have been harder to inflict damage upon, as they have been struck by American and Israeli forces, although their attacks on ships on the Red Sea continued despite the strikes.
The United States government should think very carefully about attacking Iran directly, or advocating for or attempting regime change. Contemporary history has shown us regime change makes an already volatile situation even worse. Civilian and military casualties in such an operation would be intolerable, and would mark another humanitarian disaster on top of the enormous casualties and dire conditions faced by people in Gaza. Bombing civilians does not change regimes. In fact, as long as the bombing continues as it is now, the regime will be just fine. Men, women, and children will be the people who face the most horrific of consequences. In sum, the United States should not become involved in Israel's war against Iran. The risks are too high, and the world does not need additional American intervention in countries and conflicts that we have no business being in.
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