Why Did Russia and China Not Come to Iran's Aid?

 Russia and Iran have been noted as becoming ever closer together as their anti-west viewpoints increasingly converge.  Most notably, Moscow and Tehran signed a partnership treaty to bolster cooperation between the two countries.  It must be noted that this is not a defense pact, meaning neither country is obligated to come to the defense of the other in a time of conflict.  The main fear of certain analysts was the possibility of Russia, China, or possibly North Korea, coming to the direct defense of Iran should it be attacked.  When Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran just a few weeks ago, anxieties increased dramatically.  This fear was brought to new heights when the United States bombed Iranian nuclear sites directly, a bold move for an administration that has claimed it wants to see peaceful resolutions to global conflicts.  The strikes came and went, Iran struck land near a U.S. military base in Qatar as a form of retaliation-despite the U.S. government being warned about the attack beforehand.  Russia and China were nowhere to be found.  Why did Iran's main allies not come to their defense?

The most Iran was able to get out of either Russia or China were stern condemnations of attacks on Iran's sovereignty, but any assurance of military assistance was not given.  Perhaps the main reason Russia and China were hesitant to intervene militarily is due to nuclear deterrence.  Both the United States and Israel possess nuclear weapons, as do Russia and China.  Neither country was willing to risk a direct conflict with two nuclear armed states over a conflict that doesn't directly involve either of them.  This is the most likely overarching motivation of the muted response by countries who have grown ever closer to Iran in recent years.

Russia and China also have diverging interests that can explain the lack of a response.  Russia is still deeply entrenched in their invasion of Ukraine, now in its fourth year.  They have suffered setbacks in Ukraine that have maimed their military capabilities.  Within the Middle East, Russia suffered a significant setback when the regime of long-time Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was overthrown by militia groups, effectively ending the Syrian civil war.  These circumstances make Russia as vulnerable as they have ever been in the Middle East.  Involving themselves in yet another war of attrition against two other nuclear powers with very little support outside of Iran is enough of a motivation to remain idle.

China on the other hand, has a huge motivator to remain out of this conflict, that being the extent of economic involvement with the United States.  I have maintained in the past that China and the United States going to war with each other is the least likely conflict in the world due to how inextricably bound their economies are.  Beyond both being nuclear powers, even a conventional confrontation would cripple the economies of each.  It is also possible that during a war, Iran would block the Strait of Hormuz, which is an important trade route in Asia.  China also has a long history of keeping away from military adventurism, and has long held opinions against aggressive actions against a country's sovereignty.  The nuclear deterrent, as well as an economic deterrent has ensured that China would not become involved in this conflict.

For Iran, this must be a rude awakening.  Their so-called Axis of Resistance, composed of militia groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and groups in Iraq, have been greatly weakened.  Hamas and Hezbollah in particular have taken huge losses of weaponry, manpower, and leadership in their conflicts with Israel.  Hezbollah stated it would not come to Iran's defense as they maintain a ceasefire with Israel.  The collapse of the Assad regime was also a loss for Iran, making them evermore isolated in a region that just a couple of years ago they seemed to have an iron grip upon.  They seem especially isolated with Russia and China's lack of interest in assisting them.  As of now, a seemingly flimsy ceasefire between Israel and Iran is in place.  Only time will tell if this will maintain order in the region, which it so desperately needs.