Is the Situation in Syria Sustainable?

 Over the past seven months, Syria has undergone a stark transformation.  In December of 2024, longtime dictator Bashar al-Assad's regime was overthrown, ending a 24 year long reign of tyranny and fear.  The new president is a former militant, Ahmed al-Sharaa.  al-Sharaa was a member of al-Qaeda in Iraq during the U.S. led invasion, later founding the anti-Assad organization, al-Nusra Front.  The devastating civil war in Syria lasted 13 years, and caused widespread damage and casualties.  The civil war as it was known since 2011 has all but ended with Assad's removal.  However, concerns over potential conflicts still linger, and clashes with Israel, and between groups in southern Syria have further complicated matters.  How sustainable is Syria in its current state?

It is undoubtedly a relief for millions of Syrians that Bashar al-Assad's horrific rule has come to an end.  His regime was well known for its cruelty, including the use of chemical weapons strikes on its own citizens and the torture of dissidents and prisoners.  The new government seems as though a new opportunity for Syrians has presented itself.  Although there are certainly benefits to Assad's ousting, a smooth resolution to civil conflicts is hardly as simple as it may seem to be on paper.  Almost immediately after the collapse of the Assad regime, Israel invaded a buffer zone in Syria, an action they claim was to prevent any possible hostilities against Israel in the future.  Israel already occupies part of the Golan Heights, which was taken from Syrian territory during the course of the Six-Day War in 1967.  The ousting of Assad created a power vacuum that allowed Israel to take more territory.  Israel has also launched numerous airstrikes on Damascus in the process of this invasion.

Another complication to a smooth transition from the Assad government is the fighting occurring between Druze peoples, tribes of Sunni Bedouin people, and government forces.  This fighting has been compounded by Israeli airstrikes to quell the deaths of Druze people; Israel has a sizable Druze minority.  These conflicts have ravaged southern Syria over the course of the transition.  Fortunately, a ceasefire has been reached in this area, and it has prompted talks between Syria and western governments to ensure that the government is able to centralize effectively.  

 Talks between the new Syrian government, France, and the United States yielded French and American support for the government, and the necessity of a smooth transition and political unity.  The west benefits from this transition of Syria from Assad, given that his regime was a close ally of both Russia and Iran.  This is a net loss for Russia and Iran in the region, with Iran particularly reeling from the degradation of its proxy forces during its conflict with Israel.  From this perspective, it is easy to see the goals the U.S. and France have to ensure the success of the new Syrian government.  The question remains, is the current situation in Syria sustainable?  Or is a power vacuum bound to reopen if the government cannot effectively centralize?

Based upon recent events, the fighting between groups has settled, and support from western powers gives the government legitimacy on the global stage.  Ahmed al-Sharaa in particular has re-branded himself from a militant to a moderate leader, seemingly in an attempt to secure his government's recognition globally, as well as to gain respect and legitimacy from the Syrian people themselves.  Despite these progressions, there are likely to be obstacles that make the path to full transition away from the Assad regime rocky.  Conflict in the south of Syria could resume at any time.  Israel could double down on its campaign against the Syrian military and perhaps attempt to annex more of the Golan Heights.  As of now, the government has a real opportunity to solidify itself as the leaders of the future in Syria.  Legitimate concerns still remain, and it may take some time for Syria to find its new identity.