Russia Flies Drones Over Poland: What Does This Mean for Europe?

 Russia has recently flown drones over the airspace of Poland, in a concerning escalation of tensions between Russia and the rest of Europe.  These actions become more alarming considering the fact Poland belongs to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance.  Article 5 of the NATO charter states that an attack on one NATO party is an attack on all.  Granted, Russia did not attack Poland, however, Russia's motivations behind the incursion, although difficult to dissect entirely, may be to test the lengths which the alliance is willing to go to protect another NATO state.  The United Kingdom, for instance, has sent Royal Air Force jets to Poland as a deterrent to further Russian incursion.  Since this event, Romania claims that Russia violated its airspace during an attack on Ukraine.  What do these events mean for the future of NATO-Russia relations?  What is Russia trying to achieve?

One may be wondering what Russia gains from provoking NATO in this fashion.  As it turns out, they may be gathering knowledge and experience.  Poland's Foreign Minister, Radosław Sikorski, claimed that Russia was using the drone incursion as a test, possibly attempting to figure out how NATO would respond to Russian aggression.  Of the 19 drones, roughly 3 or 4 of them were shot down by Polish air defenses.  These actions were clearly not an act of war against Poland, as the drones were not armed with ammunition.  Sikorski believes these details show that Russia was testing the waters of a possible conflict with NATO.  Since the incident, Romania's military nearly shot down a Russian drone that entered its airspace after attacking an area of Ukraine close to the Romanian border.  The drone then left back in Ukraine's direction.

Based upon all of the facts of these ventures from Russia, the idea of testing NATO's capabilities and willingness to engage with Russia directly seem to be the most likely explanation.  That is something that would certainly help Russia better prepare in the case of a direct confrontation with NATO.  Although many are rightly concerned with Russia's actions, it does not seem likely that a conflict with NATO is an imminent threat.  Russia has very little to gain from an all out war with NATO, and the consequences of such a conflict would be unacceptable for both sides.  Russia is clearly preparing for the scenario, no matter how unlikely it is to occur.  Despite this, NATO should take these actions seriously, and should take the same initiative to prepare for an all out conflict.  So far it seems as though the alliance is taking the situation seriously, based upon the movement of military equipment to Poland.

The takeaway for NATO here is that whatever level of preparedness Russia is attempting to achieve, should be taken in equal measure by the alliance.  This is the only way to counter the threat Russia poses to the rest of Europe.  If these measures are taken, NATO can become stronger and more defiant in the face of Russian threats, and can deter any possibility of a real attack.